3D Printing is on every pundit’s list of transformative technologies.  3D Printing IS NOT top of mind with most senior executives. 3D Printing IS going to be part of the future. 3D Printing is something future-focused executives should know something about. I undertook a quick examination of what is known, what is misunderstood and what should be known about this potential disruptive technology lurking just over the horizon.

What ‘Just Plain Folks’ Think
3D Printing, or “additive manufacturing” as it is termed in industrial context probably entered popular consciousness via the replicator on Star Trek. In Star Trek: The Next Generation [Episode 211 "Contagion" (1989)] Jean Luc Picard tells a cupboard in his stateroom, “Tea. Earl Grey. Hot.” Under normal circumstances, in a second or two a cup of steaming hot earl grey tea would materialize.  This is how 3D printing is supposed to work. Needless to say, current reality is nowhere close to expectations. It was in the late 1980s that the first 3D printers were used in the automobile industry to make product prototypes.

Non-Homogeneous Adoption Curves
In his very readable, 3D Printing, Second Edition Professor [Nottingham University Business School] and futurist Christopher Barnatt forecasts at least four different and unique technology adoption curves. First comes that for rapid prototyping applications. Then molds and tooling; direct digital manufacturing [DDM] and personal fabrication.

Professor Barnatt is telling us something we need to know. 3D Printing is coming to all our industries. Various sectors will evolve/adopt at different rates and via very different use cases. Barnatt reminds us that we should never judge a technology by its earliest manifestation. Price points will decline and capabilities will expand. Siemens predicts that 3D printing will become 50% cheaper and up to 400% faster in the next five years.

A Bright Future
3D Printing is a transformative technology like the steam engine, the assembly line, the personal computer and the internet. And like those technologies, it will precipitate a revolution. While currently the domain of high-value engineering, 3D Printing has relevance in most vertical markets. Amazon envisions 3D Printing at the base of the future of retail [i.e., products designed EXACTLY to your specifications and delivered one hour after ordering.]

Any new technology – and 3D Printing is no different will not universally replace traditional practices. The general consensus is that additive manufacturing will have evolved in capability such that sometime in the 2030-2050 time frame it will be used to produce completed products at scale.

3D Printing is forecast to have positive impacts on every stage of the modern manufacturing life cycle. In the design phase mainstream users have accelerated product development and reduced time-to-market. In the actual production process waste is reduced and steps eliminated. Gartner estimates mean cost reduction for finished goods using 3D Printing ranges between 4.1 percent and 4.3 percent.

The U.S. military is investing in mobile production facilities that can manufacture parts in remote areas to ensure availability of rarely requested, but vital-to-mission, replacement parts.

Wall Street Investment analysts are generally bullish on the future of additive manufacturing.  On the low end JP Morgan forecasts 18 percent CAGR through 2020 with Morgan Stanley more aggressive at 34 percent. Gartner estimates that through 2018 CAGR will approach 103.1%. PwC estimates that 67% of manufacturers are already using 3D Printing in some capacity.

3D Printing is not actually one technology. It is at least seven [Vat photopolymerization, Material jetting, Material extrusion, Powder bed fusion, Binder jetting, Sheet lamination and directed energy deposition].

Currently executives in R&D, engineering, and/or manufacturing are driving 3D Printing decisions. You should probably jump into some of these conversations.