By Thornton May
Futurist, Senior Advisor with GP, Executive Director & Dean - IT Leadership Academy

Every year, around the time the mirrored ball descends from Times Square, a cadre of editors, academics, analysts, news anchors, public intellectuals and futurists clamor over one another in an effort to be the most poignant voice describing the year to come. Many go out on a predictive limb, calling their shot ala Babe Ruth declaring that “20xx will be the year of ‘state the next thing’” [e.g., the Year of the LAN, “2013: the year we all went ‘mobile’”, the Year of Justin Bieber…]. Inevitably some will escalate the competition for attention [as measured by visits, re-tweets and likes] by claiming that “20xx will be THE Year, the Year when everything changes.” As a long-time and admittedly active participant in this forecasting frenzy I can share some universal truths about Year End forecasts.

Even though 2014 is going to be a BIG year for change – even though all the environmental factors contributing to massive change [e.g., dissatisfaction with status quo, disruptive buzzing of new participants deploying new technologies in unique and unorthodox ways, and available/affordable capital]  are in massive abundance, EVERYTHING IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE.  That is just not the way the world works.

If you crawl inside the mechanisms that actual make organizations “do” what they “do” you will discover the habit, ingrained in most major corporations, of assuming that the future will look very much like the present. We futurists call this “agreed upon reality” or the “official [though rarely publicly articulated] future”. That said, let’s look at what will be different in 2014.

DIFFERENCE #1: 2014 is going to be a big year for “Ideas.” Indeed, ideas will replace processes as the key lever in effecting enterprise change.

DIFFERENCE #2: Millennials will start to lead. More importantly, organizations will start to be lead Millennially. This means that over the next several years, the 80 to 90 million Millennials [born 1982 through 2004 age 9 through 31] will create and power a shift from a Baby Boomer management mentality–of genius at the top and heavy control, epitomized by Steve Jobs–to a millennial model of collaboration, entrepreneurism, risk-taking, sharing, experimentation, exemplified by start-up cultures. Think Zuckerberg at Facebook.

DIFFERENCE #3: Every industry will have its Steve Jobs and Andrew Carnegie [disruptive innovator and ruthless consolidator/supremely efficient operator].  Anthropologist Margaret Mead counseled those enamored with the “Great Man” theory of historical thinking to “Always remember that you are absolutely unique, just like everyone else.” Each of us have within us the makings of a Steve Jobs AND an Andrew Carnegie.

In 2014 I would like to call your attention to the entrepreneurial activities of Jerry Gregoire, the former CIO at Pepsi and Dell. Jerry has turned his fecund mind and seemingly inexhaustible energy to re-thinking the general aviation industry. Jerry and his band of happy disruptors in San Marcos, Texas are using modern technology and Silicon Valley style innovation to fundamentally change the economics of flying.  [http://www.redbirdflightsimulations.com/]. The new price points and time frames [you can become a pilot in three months] made possible by importing new ideas [Difference #1] that are embraced by new people [Difference #2] can change just about anything.

The real question in 2014 is not what will be different, what will you make different. 2014 is going to be a very exciting year. I look forward to discussing more changes with you in the future.